HnS Top -> HnS Bottom

Confidence index makes a new high today. The target peak is 4/17/2012 driven by falling Treasury prices.

AAPL Time and Price

Assuming the Money Flow Index T holds up we have:
Low on 4/11 (468ish), holding the 36d VTL. Peak 4/26 with a back test of old 36d VTL.
Green Solid Line represents the path.

APPL Update

AAPL Money Flow Index Ts

SPX vs TLT - No Major Top Yet.

The price relationship of the SPX to the Long Bond, has yet to indicate a top.  Past tops of the recent past have been preceded by divergence in the SPX/TLT RSI (Middle chart). Following the divergence a sell signal of the standard deviation model (lower chart) is required.. Notice the current RSI, while over bought, lacks divergence. The standard deviation model at this time is diverging from a cross over.

The recent sell off in bonds has bought equities some time.

Confidence Indicator Breakout

A brief history of the 39 Day Cycle

The two charts below contain:

a) Upper Pain: SPX price data.

b) Middle Pain: A crude amplitude plot of the 80 day
    cycle created with a notch filter.

c) Bottom Pain: A crude amplitude plot of the 39 day
    cycle created with a notch filter

Note the history of the 39 day cycle before the Feb of 07 downdraft vs after.